Artificial Intelligence with an Olive Oil Flavor
Innovation and Adaptation in the Face of Uncertainty: The Future of the Olive Sector
Despite this climate of uncertainty, olive groves in Spain and worldwide continue to expand. According to provisional data from Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food (MAPA), Spain now has 2,788,083 hectares of olive groves, an 11.2% increase over the past decade. Of this, 68% is dedicated to oil production, with the rest for table olives or dual-purpose cultivation. Irrigated olive groves now cover 32% of the total olive-growing area—four percentage points and 135,000 hectares more than in 2013.
Globally, the International Olive Council reports 11.6 million hectares of olive groves across 66 countries, producing 3.329 million tons in 2021/22. High-density and hedge-row olive groves are gaining ground, now making up 9.5% of Spain’s total olive-growing area, compared to the dominant 67.3% of traditional olive groves.
Facing the Future: Five Major Transitions
The olive sector’s potential and its economic and social importance are undeniable. It has yet to reach its peak, but the challenges ahead are significant. Many of the technological and industrial advancements that have driven civilization’s progress are now being questioned. The depletion of petroleum-based energy sources threatens the planet; globalization reduces sovereignty, particularly in energy and food security, widening the North-South economic divide.
Meanwhile, “advanced” countries waste 17% of what they produce, and the overexploitation of natural resources makes production systems unsustainable, jeopardizing their future. Mechanization, industrialization, and excessive chemical use degrade soil; tight profit margins in a global commodity-driven market endanger many olive farms, particularly traditional non-mechanized groves, which still make up the majority in Spain.
And all of this, as seen in the past two harvests, unfolds amid an accelerating climate crisis that creates significant uncertainty for olive oil production—an industry highly dependent on environmental factors beyond its control.
To navigate these challenges, adaptation and innovation are key. The olive sector has always been highly innovative. Who would have imagined seventy years ago, when olives were manually harvested after being knocked to the ground, that today’s hedge-row plantations would be harvested by self-guided, driverless machines? According to the World Intellectual Property Organization’s (WIPO) 2023 Global Innovation Index, Spain ranks 29th in global innovation and 25th in scientific output. However, Spain leads the world in scientific research on olive cultivation, according to the Web of Science (WOS) database, the most prestigious source of scientific literature.
The industry must undergo five major transitions:
Emphasizing decarbonization and smart use of clean, renewable energy while improving soil health and water retention through vegetative cover. Producing one liter of olive oil captures between 3.64 and 10.60 kg of CO₂E across the value chain, according to recent AEMO studies. The emerging carbon market offers a unique opportunity.
Adapting olive varieties to mechanization and evolving environmental, phytosanitary, and nutritional conditions. More sustainable farming techniques integrated, biological, organic, or conservation agriculture must be expanded.
And this the digital transition is the one that, despite being in its infancy, will bring the most significant changes in the coming years. It’s not about turning ink on paper into ones and zeros inside a cold machine; it’s about transforming data into actionable recommendations for better decision-making and developing predictive capabilities.
And in this revolution, an old acquaintance Artificial Intelligence has entered our lives with overwhelming force over the past year, thanks to ChatGPT, heralding not just a revolution but an unstoppable explosion of possibilities in data utilization that will transform the way we produce, consume, and interact.
The short-term impact of Artificial Intelligence will be 40 to 50 times greater than the Industrial Revolution, and its effects will be seen very soon. Before long, terms like algorithms, predictive models, data spaces, virtual assistants, and digital twins will be as common as ChatGPT is today, the most popular Generative AI product. This new landscape will demand generosity and trust to embrace change, a major effort from the education system to quickly adapt to the demands of emerging jobs, and support from governments and research institutions to help the sector adjust to new realities without compromising livelihoods or quality of life—ensuring no one is left behind.
The impact of AI in the short term will be 40 to 50 times greater than the Industrial Revolution, with results emerging rapidly. Soon, terms like algorithms, predictive models, data spaces, virtual assistants, and digital twins will be as common as ChatGPT is today.
This shift will demand trust, education, and government support to help the sector adapt without disrupting livelihoods.
Despite all this, the biggest mistake would be to do nothing. The real decision is not if, but when and how to move forward because what isn’t measured doesn’t exist, and what doesn’t exist cannot be improved. Producers could start small with manageable, understandable, and quickly rewarding innovations. The rest of the supply chain should seize the opportunity to adopt digital solutions now, as implementation is faster and cheaper today than when these technologies first emerged and they can learn from those who have already started the journey.
Ultimately, the goal for the olive sector remains the same to produce the world’s finest olives and olive oils perhaps now, with a hint of Artificial Intelligence.
At least in the virtual world.
